I'm Calling BS On Odds
By Kickntrue on 9/29/09
Okay- every week I see a new story where someone hits 2 aces in the same round- and every week I see the same stat that this only happens 1 in 67 million rounds. There is no way 67 million rounds of golf are being played each week or even every couple weeks worldwide.
Here is this week's story of yet another person I'm insanely jealous of.
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Agreed!!! I have played golf for over 30 years and have not made an ace!!! I have done everything BUT make one!!!
Bryan K says:
This is funny....I was going to respond here about a local dude who just did this a couple of days ago, and it turns out that the story linked is that local guy.
If you figure that there are 30,000 golf courses world wide (a conservative estimate), and that there are an average of 100 rounds per day played on these courses, that equals three million rounds per day. That would equate to 21 million rounds per week, and that means that this would happen roughly once every three weeks.
I don't find this hard to believe at all.
Hmm.... @bjohn13- when you break it down like that...
Odds aren't connected to history. just because "3" comes up on a Roulette wheel 4 times in a row, the odds of it coming up the next time are exactly the same for the next spin. Holes in one are just lucky shots, even children and blind folks have done it. What's really a testament to being a good golf player is what I witnessed a few weeks ago. The Double Eagle, or Albatross. My friend Billy Tucker hit a 262 yard drive with his driver, then hit it 265 yards with a 3 wood in the hole. I'd like to see a 90 year old lady do that.
I've come close to a hole in one a couple of times but have never done it and honestly don't expect to before I die. What I find amusing is the stories about guys making holes in one, but still shooting a 106 that round :)
I agree with merlin; many hole-in-ones are nothing but luck shots. I've heard of many PGA golfers that do not have HIO's. That just goes to show you that the best of golfers might never get to experience what a HIO feels like; but yet the worst of golfers get HIO's on multiple occassions. I'm sure these are the same people that win the lottery too. Some people just have that kind of luck.
@ kickntrue: don't feel so bad; look at bducharm above; the guy has a negative hcp and has played for 30 years and he doesn't have a HIO.
Its true that luck is a significant factor in making a HIO. I've been playing since I was a kid and have had two HIOs. The first was the result of a pretty good shot, the second was off of an eight iron pushed into an oak tree that partially overhangs the green. The ball rattled around in the branches, popped out onto the green and rolled about fifteen feet into the hole. Go figure!
Bryan K says:
Bah. There is no such thing as luck. There is only short term variance or deviation from the mean.
bjohn13; true to a degree. However, it is the random and inconsistent nature of the short term deviation from the mean of each variable that influences the event, such that the probability distribution of outcomes becomes abnormally wide. This indicates that the element of chance plays a significant role in the outcome of that event each time it occurs. Luck in other words.
I've been playing golf for a little over 40 years. I have two holes-in-one, 1976(125 yd. wedge) and 1985(178 yd. 6-iron), but the score I treasure most is an Albatross on a 520 yd. par 5,(285 yd. drive and 235 yd. 5-wood). Comparatively, the holes-in-one were easy. By the way, no luck involved in any of them. . .
It's amazing how many people I know that have one but I have not been so a)fortunate or b) lucky. One friend playing a 180 yd hole hits a 5 wood thin, the ball never goes higher than 10 feet off the ground, hits short of the green and rolls in! Another friend who has one has never beaten my now 14 year old son in a round (we often take our boys out together). Hopefully one day I will get one but until then I feel good knowing that I have at least played 9 holes to under par and 18 to a best score of 74, much tougher accomplishments in my opinion.
I had an ace 2 years ago at a local course. My wife came back 2 weeks later on the same course, same hole, and also had an ace.
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