Luke Donald, the New No. 1?
By mustang6560 on 4/21/11
Luke Donald, the current world No. 3, has a chance to reach the elite status of being the world's top golfer with a win this weekend at The Heritage in Hilton Head, SC.
The 33-year-old Briton, who won the WGC Match Play in February, can leap to the top from his current third place.You got that Luke, all you have to do is win a PGA Tour event. No big deal, right?
Luke is a very talented golfer, but let's keep things in perspective here. Saying all he has to do is win at The Heritage to jump to the top spot in the OWGR is not a fair statement. Luke only has three career PGA Tour wins, one of which came this year, (and zero majors) and he's been on Tour for 10 years. Based on that, what do you think his chances are of winning and becoming the new No. 1? If I had to guess, I'd say 750:1.
Now that Tiger is not ranked No. 1, every week there is a new scenario of what needs to happen for [fill in the blank] to reach the top spot and they make it sound like it's no big deal. If winning a golf tournament was easy, I'd be a professional golfer and not a golf blogger. I thought it was funny how last year it seemed every week there was a chance for Phil to pass Tiger in the OWGR and most of them involved Phil having to win. Every week people would say how Phil failed to pass Tiger (again) with a big huff and puff like all they were asking Phil to do was to tie his shoe.
My prediction is Luke Donald will finish Top 25 and no better. And it's not a knock against Luke. It's just the reality of competing each week against the best players on the best courses in the world.
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I need him to win, my fantasy team has been suckin lately, but his chances are pretty slim cause I have noticed that anyone I pick on my team seems to have a bad week
So it's your fault! Shame on you Backquak ;)
@mustang6560: I am not sure you are going to make it as a bookie. There are what, 150 players at The Heritage this week? Donald finished 3rd last year and 2nd the year before. Based on past form one might expect Donald's chances of winning to be better than most of the field. Still, if everyone had an equal chance, the odds would only be 150 to 1 or so.
@bkuehn1952- I've given my dreams of being a Vegas bookie years ago :)
The point is still, his best finish is 2nd. A second place finish would not give him the No. 1 ranking. He's got a decent chance, but it's not easy...
look, this is luke's favorite course on the PGA. It sets up for his type of ball-striking, so its not the longest shot in the world (pun intended). Basically if Luke finds his rhythm out there this week, its a matter of how good he's planning to putt on whether or not he'll be in contention, then its just seeing if he'll putt better than the other guys in contention.
Yes, you make a wonderful point about winning a tournament, its incredibly difficult and requires good luck on your part and bad luck for everyone else, but this week, Luke has a lot of factors in his favor, thats why he's seen success there before... we'll see
how good he's planning to putt? I would imagine he's planning to putt well :) Anything else would be a terrible plan.
Not a bookie, but I believe there's more to oddsmaking than counting the number of players. The relative skill level gets involved somehow. Otherwise how do some horses at the track come up with 30 to one odds. If I were playing I'd be a million to one, or more.
Just checked a betting site, the odds on Luke winning are 6 to 1 (the favorite).
Torleif Sorenson says:
Yeah, but think of the story-lines that will emerge if he *does* win.
Well, you were right - but I bet you had your doubts for a while there! He did brilliantly, considering.
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