Why I Expect to Break 70
By mustang6560 on 7/17/13
As I expected, the majority of oobers who've entered the oobgolf Tee It Forward Challenge picked against me — and I don't blame them. The numbers, as oober bkuehn1952 pointed out, are against me. However, I still believe I have a legitimate chance to shoot 69 or better at my home course — Colonial Country Club.

Here is breakdown of each hole from the front tees and how I expect to play each hole.
  • Hole 1, Par 5, 452 Yards — Birdie: If I can find the fairway off the tee, I'll catch a large down slope, which will leave a 7-iron (or less) into the green for my second shot.

  • Hole 2, Par 4, 296 Yards — Par: The tee box is on the left side of the hole, which sets up nicely for my Tiger Woods-esque 4-iron (or less) stinger. The 4-iron is my go-to shot off the tee if I need to find the fairway. If I execute the shot well, I'll have approximately 100 yards (or less), so I'll hit a knock-down Pitching Wedge instead of a Sand Wedge because there is sand front, left, and right.

  • Hole 3, Par 4, 255 Yards — Par: I'll hit a stinger 6-iron (or less) off the tee, which will leave a wedge into the green.

  • Hole 4, Par 3, 131 Yards — Par: Depending on the pin location, I'll hit a full Pitching Wedge or punch 9-iron.

  • Hole 5, Par 5, 413 Yards — Birde: I can't wait to get to the fifth hole! At 413 yards, I'll have a legitimate eagle opportunity if I find the fairway off the tee.

  • Hole 6, Par 4, 302 Yards — Par: I don't need to hit driver on the sixth, but I may be tempted to because the fairway is wide open. If I do (and I hit the fairway), I'll have a short pitch into the green.

  • Hole 7, Par 3, 145 Yards — Par: A full 9-iron should result in a GIR.

  • Hole 8, Par 4, 303 Yards — Birdie: If I hit driver off the tee, I'll catch the down-slope in the fairway and my ball should roll out to the green. If so, I'll have a straight-forward bump-and-run up-and-down for birdie.

  • Hole 9, Par 4, 385 Yards — Par: I don't gain much in terms of yardage between the back tees and the front tees. I do have a better angle off the tee, but my goal will be to par the number one handicap hole.

  • Hole 10, Par 4, 270 Yards — Birdie: Depending on the pin location, I could have as few as 220 yards to the front of the green off the tee, which would be an easy 5-wood. I'll play to carry the two fairway bunkers and let my ball release to the front of the green. If the pin is in the back, I may hit 3-wood off the tee.

  • Hole 11, Par 4, 350 Yards — Bogey: The red tees offer no advantage on hole 11. There is a creek that splits the hole in two, so I'll have 200+ yards on my approach shot. If I par, it'll feel like a birdie, but I bogey this hole more times than not so I'm going to keep my expectations low. I could attempt to carry the creek with my driver, but the reward is only marginal as there is trouble left and right across the creek.

  • Hole 12, Par 3, 122 Yards — Par: At a couple yards over a buck twenty, a smooth Pitching Wedge should be enough to secure my par. If it's windy, I'll hit a punch 9-iron to flight the ball down low.

  • Hole 13, Par 4, 254 Yards — Par: A 4-iron stinger off the tee will put me just short of the greenside bunkers. If the pin is in the front, it'll be another legitimate birdie opportunity. If the pin is in the back, I'll just aim to the middle of the green and do my best to two-putt for par. The top shelf of the green is about seven yards deep and you can't go long as there is a 30-foot drop off the back.

  • Hole 14, Par 5, 500 Yards — Birdie: The front tees are significantly ahead of the back tees, which gives me a good chance to carry the top of the fairway upslope. If I can carry the hill, I'll have a 5-wood or 4-iron into the green.

  • Hole 15, Par 4, 404 Yards — Par: The only thing I'll be thinking about on this hole is whether or not to hit driver off the tee. 3-wood will be plenty, but I may try to poke it down the fairway and let it run to leave a Gap Wedge or less into the green.

  • Hole 16, Par 3, 123 Yards — Birdie: The 16th is the easiest of the par-3s at Colonial. And at 123 yards, I'm confident I can score because the green is long and wide so I can go after the pin.

  • Hole 17, Par 4, 317 Yards — Bogey: The 17th is a really tricky hole. It's a dogleg right with little room for error off the tee, and there are two greenside bunkers (left and right) so my approach shot will need to be solid to avoid a big number. My goal is to get a par but I hope to do no worse than a bogey.

  • Hole 18, Par 5, 495 Yards — Par: Driver. 7-iron stinger. Knock-down Pitching Wedge. Par.
If you've been keeping score, then you know that my target score is 68 — 10 pars, six birdies, and two bogeys. Regardless of how thorough my plan is, it all comes down to execution. I know I'll have to chip and putt well Sunday to break 70.

Is it the weekend yet?

If you haven't picked a side in the oobgolf Tee It Forward Challenge, then click the link and leave a comment stating whether or not you think I can break 70 from the red tees.


Image via Flickr, Dan Perry


[ comments ]
GolfSmith7 says:
I am rooting for you but I think it will take you a second attempt to break 70.
7/17/13
 
slimpks1850 says:
Don't let all these negative people get to you. I'm on the sub-70 side. Can anyone let me know how to watch live scoring tho? Please.
7/17/13
 
GBogey says:
For the record, I like your chances of making par. But the slope/rating for your handicap indicates your score would be 74, meaning you have to be 5 shots better than your handicap. Good luck, but that's a lot of GIRs/fairways/putts make.
7/17/13
 
mustang6560 says:
@slimpks1850: Around 2pm CT Sunday, click on my game page and you'll see a score in my scores list that says "Live". Every time I finish a hole, it'll update so you can follow my score in real time.
7/17/13
 
slimpks1850 says:
Thanks mustang.
7/17/13
 
Bertie_16 says:
Like Mike Tyson says, "everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth".
7/17/13
 
birdieXris says:
I think the course is still a bit too long to shoot under 70. You're gonna get real close, maybe even shoot even par but you're not a long enough hitter to capitalize on the really short holes to put it up there off the tee and have a chip and a putt. A lot can still go wrong even when you're pitching from 80 yards in the fairway.
7/17/13
 
legitimatebeef says:
Cool story Nathan.

LOL @ bertie
7/17/13
 
GolfSmith7 says:
@Bertie, I am putting this one into this forum lol good one! www.oobgolf.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=30979&909
7/17/13
 
mjaber says:
The best on the PGA tour make a birdie about 20% of the time, which comes to about 3-4 birdies per round. Even from the short tees, your going to need to either drive the green & 2-putt or stick your irons all day. Sorry Nathan, but I don't think you're gonna get there.
7/17/13
 
joeldeer says:
I've seen your game at Colonial....I bet you won't break 80!
7/17/13
 
mustang6560 says:
@joeldeer: I whooped you at Deerfield last Saturday! #hushyomouth
7/17/13
 
bkuehn1952 says:
08/12/2012. Think about that when you tee it up on #16 needing 3 pars for a 69.


;) - Actually, don't think about it and prove the majority of us wrong!
7/17/13
 
GBogey says:
The problem I had when I Teed it Forward was the tee shot angles were dramatically different from what I was used to. Many of the forward tees were far right or far left relative to the fairway - difficult to adjust to.
7/17/13
 
Matt F says:
Mustang said: "Around 2pm CT Sunday, click on my game page and you'll see a score in my scores list that says "Live". Every time I finish a hole, it'll update so you can follow my score in real time."

So, the app works just fine for you?
7/18/13
 
Duke of Hazards says:
Do it if you're bad.
7/18/13
 
mustang6560 says:
Matt F: Yes. The app works for 90%+ of users right now, but we're still working to fix it for the 10%.
7/18/13
 
mustang6560 says:
I can't wait for Sunday!
7/18/13
 
birdieXris says:
I'm still hoping i can play monday morning. I have a time for 6:44 am but my club build has been delayed and is tentative for friday! :( I have no sticks!!!!!
7/18/13
 
birdieXris says:
I suppose i COULD play with my woods and wedges only :) that would be awesome.
7/18/13
 
rmetz676 says:
If you really hit the ball 280 off the tee as your Game Page indicates, you're weakness isn't length, but your ability to get the ball in the hole once you are off the tee. Moving closer doesn't help negate your weakness. The 1 or 2 club difference in your approaches means you'll only be 5-10 feet closer to the pin on each green. So now, instead of chipping from 50 feet, you'll putt from 40 (at 2.03 putts per GIR, that's not encouraging). You will also have more half wedges, which are more difficult to gauge. Looking at your scores, it also looks like you have at least one double a round... So, one double and probably another bogey mixed in there means you need at least 6 birdies to break 70. Your stats say your putting isn't good enough for that.

Having said all that... Go shoot 68 and prove me wrong.
7/18/13
 
CeeBee says:
I'm thinkin you will accomplish the mission.
7/18/13
 
CeeBee says:
I may give Poolesville a go from the forward tees next week just for the hell of it. ANYBODY else willing to move up once?
7/18/13
 
jfurr says:
@ceebee If I get a chance to get out to Charwood tomorrow or Saturday I'll try it. I started to do it the other afternoon, played front nine, then caught up with a friend and joined him on regular mens tees. BTW, my results on 9 were not great.
7/18/13
 
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